Steam's Top Genres by Hit Rate Revealed

A new analysis of over 100,000 Steam games estimates revenue and ranks genres by their 'hit rate', the percentage of games earning over $100k.

A new report estimates the earnings of Steam games and ranks genres by their commercial success. The data, compiled by Ichiro Lambe, Matt Martindale, and Dr. Tim Ermilov for weloveit.io, analyzes over 100,000 titles using a review-based estimation method.

The trio does not have access to Valve's internal sales data. Instead, they use the Boxleiter method, which assumes a game's review count is roughly proportional to its sales. For a standard estimate, the multiplier is 35 times the amount of user reviews. This technique is used by analysts and publishers when precise figures are unavailable.

The report's "genre economics" section uses Steam user tags to gauge performance. A game only counts towards a genre when the tag is one of its six most popular. The key metric is "hit rate," which measures the percentage of games with that tag that have made more than $100,000.

Genre Hit Rates on Steam

According to the data, sandbox games have the highest hit rate on Steam. The sandbox tag achieves a 27.3% hit rate. The most popular games with this tag include Terraria, Red Dead Redemption 2, and Project Zomboid.

The next best performer is the FPS tag, with a 21.6% hit rate. The report notes that many games not strictly focused on shooting, such as Schedule I or Portal 2, carry the FPS tag.

Here are the top 10 genres on Steam ranked by their hit rate:

The report states that visual novels rank surprisingly high, likely due to their ubiquity on the platform. Sports ranks highly because fewer games carry the tag compared to broader categories like puzzle.

The Riskiest Genres

The lowest-ranking tags are perhaps more telling. Hidden Object games have a 5.4% hit rate. 2D platformers have a 5.5% hit rate. Developing a game in these genres is considered risky business, according to the study.

They may be cheaper to develop, however. This can make them more common and thus less likely to be discovered. The full study notes that 2D platformers have severely dropped in popularity since their heyday in 2016. Visual novels have remained almost consistently popular since 2014.

Top Sellers and New Releases

The source also includes a weekly revenue chart for August 18-25. It reflects top performers by revenue, not necessarily units sold. Mortal Shell 2 had a successful launch, but not as successful as How to Fish, a 1-4 player physics-based fishing simulator.

Star Wars Zero Company released on August 28. Its review embargo lifted on August 26. The report states it placed 12th on the chart, rising 12 positions due to a last-minute rush on pre-orders which offered cosmetic incentives.

The Wardogs beta served as a taster for the full game releasing next month. Stalker 2 reappeared on the list after receiving a massive 2.0 update and a steep discount last week.

Recent Steam Deep Cuts

The source highlighted several recent smaller releases. Iron Blight, released August 25, is a first-person game set in a grimy eastern European environment with a focus on resource scarcity. Players compare it to No More Room in Hell and ZombiU.

Aggelos 2 launched on August 28. It is a sequel to a 2018 Wonder Boy clone and features two massive, overlapping maps across parallel realms. This 16-bit styled platformer doubles down on metroidvania elements.

Can I Come In? Is a short first-person horror game set in Soviet-era tower blocks. Released August 28, it costs less than a fiver and runs about an hour. The player is a teenager left alone for a troubled evening.

Divinum launched on August 29. It is another metroidvania where protagonist Fjør must save her northern homeland. The game features hack 'n' slash inspired combat and evocative presentation.

The full revenue estimation study and interactive graphs are available to browse on the weloveit.io website.

Source: PC Gamer